Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration works based on a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
